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Wow, $60k seems like a lot. Maybe I'm old. I remember when you could get a vehicle for 10% less than MSRP, not 30% MORE.
 

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All this makes me wish the timing was better. I could sell my van with 90k miles for more than I paid for it (according to local ad asking prices), I could sell my house $1.25 million (it was valued at $750k a year ago), and then just go on vacation for a year until the prices of stuff start to plummet, and buy back in. Alas, I need my house for at least this Summer, and the van as well.
 

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Surly, what makes you so sure it will be better a year from now?

One “bigger” problem is all the “newbie” campers, or not-so-new, re-entrants. There won’t be a place to park your home-away-from-home, without it feeling like a mobile home park...only tighter.

I’m reminded of my neighbor’s mother. She asked my opinion about converting, so of course I launched into my “prices are going through the roof” rant. She seemed to agree it was ridiculous, then turned around and bought a new Winnebago Boldt. Go ahead, google it. North of $200k. That scummy crew-van for $59k is low rent. Tsk. It’s not even a Mercedes. And (I assume) it doesn’t have Lithium-powered AC and induction cooking. So what if she uses it for 9 months then takes a bath selling it (or not)? There is a lot of money floating around...wherever it came from (not from my meager investments). Van camping has become like buying Game Stop stock or Bitcoin...a mania. Psst: buy AMC


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Yeah I'm not SURE, but the law of averages, historical trends, and educated guesses about supply chain indicate that in one, perhaps two years the housing market will settle down, and there will be many more vehicles on the market. I don't think the housing sale prices will decrease much, but stuff will stay on the market longer, and the cash offers over asking price for "as-is" (uninspected) homes will probably go away.

Oh, I'm not planning on living in a van, or staying in campgrounds, so the #vancraze doesn't impact me. THAT will blow over as people go back to work or realize that it doesn't meet their romanticized expectations, so there will be a glut of DIY campervans on the market. Maybe cities will buy them in bulk and use them as homeless housing. I need my van for work, and some travel. If I'm lucky, I'll get to go camping a couple weeks this Summer. That's not going to happen until maybe August. Hopefully all the commoners will be back in their cubicles and their kids locked up in schools come Fall.

But back to topic, I've seen periods of "additional dealer markup" before, but never 30% for a nothing-special van. For a limited production sports car, yeah. For the initial run of 4x4 Sprinters, too. They were marked up $15-25k over msrp if they made it to a lot. 6 months to a year later they were at msrp or below with some incentives (Mercedes rarely offers incentives) because all the people that "had to have one" already had one and the feeding frenzy was over. The sheer lack of available products right now has driven prices way up, because the market is setting the prices. You can't blame the dealerships for the markup, they are in business to make money, not help the community.
 

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(background: I'm in Maryland)
  • Before I bought my Transit (April 2021), I had searched for way too long, and I had talked to this very dealer (Loudon Ford in Ohio) several times. Prices just kept going up. YEah - I was talking to every dealer this side o' the Mississippi, and beyond.
  • I had my local Ford dealer shop the national network: They only found 4 new Crew vans available in the entire US, and only 1 of them was this side of Las Vegas. That van had a MSRP of ~$48K, and the dealer was asking ~$90K (!!!)
  • I ended up buying a 2019 passenger van near Lancaster PA (Four Way Auto & Truck sales, in New Holland PA. Highly recommended.). I paid ~ $36K for a 2019 with ~16,000 miles on it.
I'm glad to finally be here, among fellow Transit owners, but I'm shocked at what it cost me to join you guys.
 

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I'm sure some will disagree with me, but here goes. Last year, black book showed peak wholesale prices were in August, and dropping 1/2 % each week. In October the chip shortage was being talked, but not realized by much of the public. For the last few months, people have talked about it intensely.

One of the few used vehicles that dropped in value the least last year and climbed the most are"full size" vans.

They suspect the chip shortage will resolve sometime in the end on 2021 or early 2022. We'll see when production catches up with demand.

I don't expect a bargain or return to average prices for a couple of years.
 

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That's vw transporter (eurovan) pricing...

Is the transit getting cult status in the USA?

Custom is getting that way here but not the full sized transit.

Cheers James
 

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I'm sure some will disagree with me, but here goes. Last year, black book showed peak wholesale prices were in August, and dropping 1/2 % each week. In October the chip shortage was being talked, but not realized by much of the public. For the last few months, people have talked about it intensely.

One of the few used vehicles that dropped in value the least last year and climbed the most are"full size" vans.

They suspect the chip shortage will resolve sometime in the end on 2021 or early 2022. We'll see when production catches up with demand.

I don't expect a bargain or return to average prices for a couple of years.
You make a really profound point: Supply & Demand are not the big impactors on pricing - but rather perceived Supply & Demand. So once the media gets involved, and they hyper-inflate a perceived shortage, watch out !!
Similar to your point about the huge disconnect in timing (6+ months) between the auto industry's knowledge of the chip shortage, and the public's knowledge of it: The recent pipeline hack was merely a shoulder-shrug in the cyber industry - until a week went by and the mainstream media hyped it - and then everyone (in Maryland at least) ran out on THE SAME DAY and tried to top off their tank. There was no shortage the day before - or a few days later - but... yep, thanks to the mainstream media: "Big shortage."
No - Just a self-fulfilling prophecy.
They (mainstream media) need to declare a massive shortage of.... stupidity: Then maybe stupidity would all get bought up & go away. The stupidity shelves would be empty. :unsure:
Have a great weekend, everybody!
PS - And I also agree with you: Prices will take a couple of years to get back to normal.
 

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Supply & Demand are not the big impactors on pricing - but rather perceived Supply & Demand.
Not sure how you can say this. New Transit supply for months has been essentially zero. I have had a Transit on order since early December. I have no VIN, no build date, nothing.
 

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You make a really profound point: Supply & Demand are not the big impactors on pricing - but rather perceived Supply & Demand. So once the media gets involved, and they hyper-inflate a perceived shortage, watch out !!
Similar to your point about the huge disconnect in timing (6+ months) between the auto industry's knowledge of the chip shortage, and the public's knowledge of it: The recent pipeline hack was merely a shoulder-shrug in the cyber industry - until a week went by and the mainstream media hyped it - and then everyone (in Maryland at least) ran out on THE SAME DAY and tried to top off their tank. There was no shortage the day before - or a few days later - but... yep, thanks to the mainstream media: "Big shortage."
No - Just a self-fulfilling prophecy.
They (mainstream media) need to declare a massive shortage of.... stupidity: Then maybe stupidity would all get bought up & go away. The stupidity shelves would be empty. :unsure:
Have a great weekend, everybody!
PS - And I also agree with you: Prices will take a couple of years to get back to normal.
Unfortunately, there’s a near-unlimited supply of stupidity. Those “shelves” will be full for quite awhile.

If only the media would predict a massive shortage of gas (and diesel) throughout the west and northwest. Maybe more people would stay home…or go to the east coast (where evidently there is no shortage???)


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