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Thoughts on Current Car Market for Those with Vans still on Order?

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Hello Internet,
I've been hearing for about a week or so now, that the car market bubble has officially popped. I'm one of the many members still waiting on a van, so with the new car prices apparently coming down, and inventory starting to get better, I wanted to see what your thoughts are on how to go from here?


This Ben Hardy Video was interesting.

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A quick survey of actual on-the-lot inventory at your local Ford (or other) dealer would seem to indicate dealers are quickly selling every unit they can get their hands on, still for MSRP+.

I don’t think we’ll see a “turn” in the Van market until dealers have 30-90 days of inventory.
 

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On Order 2023 Transit 350 Avalanche 148" Wheelbase with Medium Roof
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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
A quick survey of actual on-the-lot inventory at your local Ford (or other) dealer would seem to indicate dealers are quickly selling every unit they can get their hands on, still for MSRP+.

I don’t think we’ll see a “turn” in the Van market until dealers have 30-90 days of inventory.
Great point. I know with my order it's something I specc'ed, but I am seeing a ton of regular, plain white vans in stock. I commute into NYC a few times a week, and I cross over some of the shipping ports and they are filling up.
 

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Once you see Ford dealers getting stock units on the lot to sell, you may see a slight drop in prices for the Transit. With everything being retail customer orders, the higher market is for the person looking for a Transit from the outside and they only have choices with either cancelled customer orders or base commercial equipped models.
 

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I could totally see the "you'll probably be able to deal a bit more on a plain white stock-ordered contractor van."

But not sure I see the market for the type of vans many of us here would make into camper- or moto-vans bursting. Those aren't the usual stock-on-the-lot vans but are typically individually ordered by a customer through the COVP program. Then you have the fact that the 2023 customer order window closed a couple of months back, and even all of the people who did order custom 2023's don't have VIN's yet (or vans).

So the next time a person could make a typical custom order would be for a 2024 van, when that window opens. That would be for a van delivered in .... spring of 2024?

It seems like that would keep the market more tight for the "fancier" vans, but then I'm no economy expert.
 

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I dont see the van market changing anytime soon, Looks like my local GM dealers are getting better stock of trucks and suvs, my local ford dealer has maybe 15 units on the lot, mostly eco sport. That being said, i gave up on the transit wish with inventory and pricing so high, I just purchased another GM Savana. their inventory is horrible also, with the van soon to expire in 2026. I was able to snag a 6.6 litre , which has been unavailable for the 2023 model year. Im hoping this will make the van hold its value for quite some time. If Ford will ever get their sh%#@ together I would love to try the transit before im 6 feet under, time is running out..................
 

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Hello All
I ordered a 2022 Transit AWD Eco-Boost through my builder 18 months ago now the order is for a 2023 and its looking dim. I called my builder to see if they knew something I didn't about the Transit and they offered me a
2023 MBZ AWD.They have a few in stock and I took it now I have a completion date for April 2023.

I just want to get on with it.

Sorry Ford
 

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Clearly, we have entered a new dark age of long-term social and economic hardship driven by multiple cascading factors.
The first of which are demographic. The Baby Boom is ending with the largest demographic group in history already retiring, selling down their savings and not buying stuff. Most of us old folks have already got more stuff than we need anyway. Simultaneously, the massive "Baby Gaps", resulting from the economic shocks of 2000 and 2009, are driving an economic contraction that's working its way through high schools and colleges, which will crater economic demand for the next 10 years.
Throw in 40 years of wage stagnation, that gutted Gen X,Y,Z's buying power, stratospheric asset prices, from decades of zero cost debt, the lingering pandemic, climate change, drought, agricultural collapse, refugee crises, exploding political extremism and nationalism - and it's starting to look like the zombie apocalypse is upon us.

So, the question is, do you want to have your van, built, stocked and ready to go, or are you willing take the risk and hope you can survive long enough to grab an abandoned one .......:eek:
 

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Another short-term blow to materialism: China is having a covid surge, and they don't mess around. Factories and entire towns shut down to prevent spread. That type thing was the snowball the started the global recession a couple years ago. This will effect the auto market due to reduced supply of parts and pieces to make new ones or repair old ones.

Like Britt sez; we really have too much stuff anyway. The smart move is to buy fewer things, but the things you DO buy should last a long time. The "disposable stuff" mindset bolsters the economy but hurts pretty much everything else. The commoners are just going to keep doing their "retail therapy", though, even if it bankrupts them.
 
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Here is an interesting take on some fundamental economic changes that may be occuring
Not Just Another Recession
Yes, good article. I have been following this since 1976 when I was first introduced to the macro-economic modeling that the Club of Rome was doing.
I was an aerospace engineer at the time looking at complex engine controls and avionics and was fascinated by the challenges of controlling non-linear systems. We were studying other non-linear systems like disease progression, super saturated solutions and non-Newtonian fluids, and complex computer simulations, to look at novel control strategies.

CoR's work seemed obvious and intuitive to me at the time. AFAIK, they were the first to bring these new tools into economics. Their complex simulations applied non-linear math, chaos theory, hysteresis etc., to economics. They modeled how populations, resources, economic activity etc., would progress under various scenarios up to around 2030. Their insights felt right and intuitive to a control systems engineer but were heretical to the increasingly influential laissez faire, economists like Milton Friedman and his acolytes. The latter universally pounded CoR, misrepresenting their work as being in favor of zero growth, which was nonsense.

Fast forward 46 years and pretty much every major trend that CoR projected has played out.
 

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VIN Received. R2X. 2023 HR, 148 long, Cargo AWD. Windows all around
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Hello Internet,
I've been hearing for about a week or so now, that the car market bubble has officially popped. I'm one of the many members still waiting on a van, so with the new car prices apparently coming down, and inventory starting to get better, I wanted to see what your thoughts are on how to go from here?


This Ben Hardy Video was interesting.

I've been asking myself the same question. It looks like I'll have a van by spring after about 22 months of waiting. I"m strongly considering placing an order for another van (Transit Trail ) soon after I pick up my 2023. My dealer does not require a down payment. By the time it arrives my 2023 might be just out of warrantee and I'll be needing new tires and brakes. If the market is holding for used vans, it could be an overall inexpensive way to get a new lifted van. Additionally I might be able to get price protection again if it takes Ford another 22 months to build a van. It's game and I want to win. That simple.
 

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If you want a van, hunting and gathering would probably be far more productive than ordering and crossing your fingers.
Yeah, you might not get EXACTLY what you want, but have we actually become that entitled?
 

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Took at look at some Ford dealers with Transits on the lot. Prices are from $4500 over MSRP to $20K over. A lot of them have now went to the 'Call for Pricing' as they don;t want the general public to know how much over MSRP they want to charge.

If you have a ordered Transit be sure to have your financing and insurance in place once your van is at the dealership. If the dealer games start happening once it arrives, let us know so we can let other forum members know who these dealers are and how they need to be informed. I am forwarding this information to contacts at Ford who now seem to want to do something with the calls they are getting via Ford Customer Service and seeing dealer problems arising.
 
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