[Van Gogh]

I attended a presentation 3 years ago by the recently retired CEO of APS (massive power company in southern AZ) where he showed an insider chart predicting lithium battery prices were slated to fall heavily.

Part of that trend was due to the massive mark-up from domestic battery vendors (assemblers) who source all of their components overseas for cheap, then assemble in the US and sell for 200-300% profit. In a more globalized world, vendors from overseas are now increasingly selling direct to the US market at a rate that is profitable for them, but still half of what domestic battery assemblers charge. Finding the good ones has been a challenge, but a few have built up reputations for quality, and their sales are booming. That trend will only increase, with middleman profits from US assemblers decreasing as they lower prices to remain competitive.

However, raw lithium prices are now soaring, even though lithium is one of the most abundant elements, and is found everywhere on earth. Mining and extraction are the limitations. Additionally, the rapidly growing EV market is providing a massive uptick in demand. So this may cause even direct-to-consumer overseas vendors to raise their prices dramatically for a year or two. I suspect it'll crash back down at some point as more mines come online and the Federal Reserve starts battling inflation (don't fight the Fed, they usually win).

But in the meantime, wow, check out these numbers:

Lithium price ($/tonne):
2022: $78,032
2021: $17,000
2020: $6,800
2019: $11,310
2018: $14,660
2017: $12,070
2016: $8,840
2015: $5,110
2014: $4,680
2013: $4,750
2012: $4,450

Cheers.

 

[kenryan]

I don't see how my Battleborn batteries could get even more expensive, but based on that chart maybe they can.

 

[curiouscampervans]

We import SOK lithium batteries direct from China. Costs have gone up recently but it has been due to shipping, not raw material prices. Perhaps these prices are lagging and will take months/years to affect consumer pricing.

 

[GROOVY2]

purchased extra battery month ago -

 

[harryn]

I have no doubt that all Li based product pricing is rising and will go higher.

The Chinese have been trying to tie up Li supplies for a long time and dump Li batteries on the market to drive out competitors (similar to their solar panel strategy) , but even for them, mineral prices of all types are rising.

There are no indications that ocean shipping prices are going to go down - most likely will continue to rise for a while.

Li battery pricing pressure (and the high chip count) might become so high that it delays the movement to EVs.

This is one of the reasons that I design all of my van electrical products to be compatible with both Lifeline AGMs and Battle born batteries. I have no plans to qualify any Li prismatic cell based batteries for mobile applications. The risk is too high vs a cylindrical cell based battery.

 

[njvagabond]

Lithium supply is set to triple by 2025. Will it be enough?

 

[surly Bill]

I wonder when the potassium batteries are going to be made to replace other types of deep cycle batteries? Far cheaper, and in many ways better than Li Ion.
Of course, there's the graphene-aluminum battery on the horizon that could be the best battery system ever.

Market-derived products:
The sheer cost of Lithium will create openings for other technology. I wouldn't sweat it.

 

[njvagabond]

I'm good. Just finished building my NiFe battery.

Actually, I photographed these yesterday at Thomas Edison National Historical Park.
Birthday(ish) trip was to purchase my National Parks SR pass and relive memories of visiting this site many times in the the 'hood of my youth.

You could get these as a $600 upgrade over lead acid in the Detroit Electric Model 1.
Here is the one he owned and the charger. 80 mile range 8 hr recharge (top speed 20 mph)

Some interesting links.
1914 Detroit Electric
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/17/a-ride-in-a-century-old-detroit-electric-car-warped-my-mind/

 

[njvagabond]

I wonder when the potassium batteries are going to be made to replace other types of deep cycle batteries? Far cheaper, and in many ways better than Li Ion.
Of course, there's the graphene-aluminum battery on the horizon that could be the best battery system ever.

Market-derived products:
The sheer cost of Lithium will create openings for other technology. I wouldn't sweat it.

More lithium mining. All these [email protected] EV's are going to ruin the environment.

 

[bigWhiteVanna]

Used to be a real advocate of EV growth and was going to buy one. Now I think the maket is way over heating for what they offer. They have several limitations and battery technology is going to be SO much better in 20 years or so, that today's EVs will be laughably obsolete and inefficient.

The pinnacle of stupidity is loading up a large SUV or pickup truck with batteries and selling it for close to $100k. Lipstick on a pig!

 

[hudsontommy2030]

I guess the price is gonna go really high next year

Sent from my Infinix X650 using Tapatalk

 

[Van Gogh]

We import SOK lithium batteries direct from China. Costs have gone up recently but it has been due to shipping, not raw material prices. Perhaps these prices are lagging and will take months/years to affect consumer pricing.

I think so. The existing inventory is depleting slowly due to shipping but once that backlog clears the next batches may jump in price.

Cheers.

 

[harryn]

The pinnacle of stupidity is loading up a large SUV or pickup truck with batteries and selling it for close to $100k. Lipstick on a pig!

Maybe. There are a number of applications for that setup where it makes perfect sense.

It is also a technology demonstrator that shows the limits of the current approach and the related issues with existing DOT weight limit concepts. Unless the DOT weight limit numbers change, useful EV trucks are not going to happen.

 

[Van Gogh]

Used to be a real advocate of EV growth and was going to buy one. Now I think the maket is way over heating for what they offer. They have several limitations and battery technology is going to be SO much better in 20 years or so, that today's EVs will be laughably obsolete and inefficient.

The pinnacle of stupidity is loading up a large SUV or pickup truck with batteries and selling it for close to $100k. Lipstick on a pig!

I agree, unless the price is competitive or only marginally than ICE vehicles, EVs really only make sense for commuters, or anyone who sticks to well established routes between major cities. Which admittedly describes plenty of pickup truck "lifestyle" drivers who have probably never down a dirt road.

Having said that, I saw a Tesla station next to a Carl's Jr. in little old Gila Bend, AZ the other day. Even stranger was a very old hand painted (not well) blue camper van plugged in. It was the only vehicle there. I really should have taken a picture.

Cheers.

 

[Vanaroo]

Having said that, I saw a Tesla station next to a Carl's Jr. in little old Gila Bend, AZ the other day. Even stranger was a very old hand painted (not well) blue camper van plugged in. It was the only vehicle there. I really should have taken a picture.

I noticed someone posting in a "vanlife" youtube video that they were going with Ecoflows for their DC power source and planned to (sometimes) charge them up using EV charging stations.

It made me curious whether you pay for these stations and it's metered somehow? Like a fuel station? Or would they be taking advantage of something and giving people more reason not to like van campers? They gave the impression that it would be free and they would just pull up as if they were an EV (?)

 

[Van Gogh]

I noticed someone posting in a "vanlife" youtube video that they were going with Ecoflows for their DC power source and planned to (sometimes) charge them up using EV charging stations.

It made me curious whether you pay for these stations and it's metered somehow? Like a fuel station? Or would they be taking advantage of something and giving people more reason not to like van campers? They gave the impression that it would be free and they would just pull up as if they were an EV (?)

As far as I'm aware, most charge a fee using an app, but some are public and free (for now).

Thankfully I have no need since I've got more solar power than my a/c needs.

Cheers.

 

[ranxerox]

Maybe. There are a number of applications for that setup where it makes perfect sense.

It is also a technology demonstrator that shows the limits of the current approach and the related issues with existing DOT weight limit concepts. Unless the DOT weight limit numbers change, useful EV trucks are not going to happen.

The weight limit for trucks in Europe is 120,000 pounds, One third more then in the US. Volvo produces many large EV.

 

[harryn]

The weight limit for trucks in Europe is 120,000 pounds, One third more then in the US. Volvo produces many large EV.

Thanks - yes it varies.

What I didn't say very clearly was related to the 10K lb DOT related limits.

Most of the EV light trucks / van type vehicles use up most of the DOT 10K lb limit just to have the batteries on board, leaving little to nothing for actual towing or on board load. Unless this limit is raised to 15 - 20K lbs, EV pickup trucks will be more decorative than useful.

My belief is that once consumers (especially light commercial users) actually start receiving and using their EV trucks like the Ford Lightning and similar, they are going to be very frustrated that it will be over the weight limit with almost nothing in the bed.

There really isn't any reason that the DOT can't increase this number across the board for ALL personal, commercial and agr light trucks and vans - it is nothing but a paperwork value for taxes.

 

[Checkswrecks]

I attended a presentation 3 years ago by the recently retired CEO of APS (massive power company in southern AZ) where he showed an insider chart predicting lithium battery prices were slated to fall heavily.

Part of that trend was due to the massive mark-up from domestic battery vendors (assemblers) who source all of their components overseas for cheap, then assemble in the US and sell for 200-300% profit. In a more globalized world, vendors from overseas are now increasingly selling direct to the US market at a rate that is profitable for them, but still half of what domestic battery assemblers charge. Finding the good ones has been a challenge, but a few have built up reputations for quality, and their sales are booming. That trend will only increase, with middleman profits from US assemblers decreasing as they lower prices to remain competitive.

However, raw lithium prices are now soaring, even though lithium is one of the most abundant elements, and is found everywhere on earth. Mining and extraction are the limitations. Additionally, the rapidly growing EV market is providing a massive uptick in demand. So this may cause even direct-to-consumer overseas vendors to raise their prices dramatically for a year or two. I suspect it'll crash back down at some point as more mines come online and the Federal Reserve starts battling inflation (don't fight the Fed, they usually win).

But in the meantime, wow, check out these numbers:

Lithium price ($/tonne):
2022: $78,032
2021: $17,000
2020: $6,800
2019: $11,310
2018: $14,660
2017: $12,070
2016: $8,840
2015: $5,110
2014: $4,680
2013: $4,750
2012: $4,450

Cheers.

The average EV car has only 10-20 lbs of lithium in it, as the lithium is for the ions, nothing structural. So...

$78,032/ton divided by 2,000 lbs = $39.02/lb
15 lb avg weight of lithium times $39.02 equals $585.24

Even at $78,000/ton in a $50,000 car that is only 1.17% of the car cost.

 

[ranxerox]

Lithium seems to last forever, The seven year old battery in my Huawei flip-phone still stays charged for a day and a half.
I have what amounts to a unlisted number so no telemarketers ever call me, And I only make a couple of phone calls a day which are often short ones.
It is what it is the battery still serves my needs seven years later. If 5G ever gets fully rolled out that will be the end of this phone.