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Osborne effect starting in vans?

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Is anyone deferring a van purchase because they except electric vehicles to take over in a couple of years?

Seems to be reports now that the effect is beginning to take hold.

Of course, that is only for people who have a choice and do not need a vehicle now.
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I thought about this before purchasing my Transit ... for about two seconds. My van is primarily for travel. I do not expect electric vehicles to take over the RV segment any time soon.

If my van were for doing business around town, I would be looking hard at EVs and would possibly defer rather than going ICE.
 

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I'm also concerned about the grid as electric vehicles become more popular. My goal is to first have enough solar and battery power in the house to charge an EV 100% from solar before going electric.
 

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An all electric van would not work for me, since my main goal is for a 4-season overland camper, where most of the places that I camp (or plan to camp) are too remote to have charging stations. I'm also concerned at how well an all electric vehicle would work when the temperature is much below freezing. My guess is that, at the very least, the range would decrease quite a bit.And I'm guessing that you would not be able to charge you house batteries off the alternator. Plus you would need to use propane for heat while camping, unless you carried a separate fuel tank for a gas or diesel heater.

I would be more interested in a hybrid van.
 
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Not even close. Best of luck to anyone thinking that direction. To get the kind of range that any of the current electric sedans get would require at least twice as much battery / storage. Meaning weight and cost. Plus the insanely long charge times. Good decade out for that, minimum.

Doesn't mean I haven't heard my physics-challenged friends telling me they'll be charging with the solar panels... :rolleyes:
 

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I had to look up the Osborne Effect - learn something every day!

We did an emotional purchase of a big TV the last time the Seattle Seahawks were in the Super Bowl. The Hawks lost and a new version of the TV is about 40% of what we paid. I don't regret our purchase a bit because our TV still works great and we have enjoyed it for several years. The "area under the curve" of (satisfaction * time) is worth it for us!

So, deferring purchase of a new van indefinitely while waiting for the latest/greatest drivetrain is not something I would do.
 

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Is anyone deferring a van purchase because they except electric vehicles to take over in a couple of years?

Seems to be reports now that the effect is beginning to take hold.

Of course, that is only for people who have a choice and do not need a vehicle now.
All electric is not practical at this point in time because of the battery weight and limited travel distance between charging. I am waiting for the gas/electric hybrid which gives you the best of both worlds.
 

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Not me. I'm deferring purchase because vans are too dang expensive right now. That, and I'm holding out for a PHEV. EV van with currently available technology won't work for me because I take 1000+ mile trips into the hinterlands a few times a year.
 

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I am in the camp of it being the reverse of the Osborne effect. People see what is coming for electrified vehicles and are buying ICE vehicles to last as long into the crazy times as possible - or until they can re-call some politicians for being even more silly than usual.
 

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I was talking with a friend the other day (both retired aerospace engineers). Are manufacturers exploring an electric vehicle with reasonable battery-powered range plus a small, super efficient onboard diesel generator to provide extra charging when needed? This configuration eliminates range anxiety, allows "pure" EV operation for normal day-to-day operation, and provides a combined range that is only limited by the diesel fuel tank capacity. The turbo-diesel engine, ~1L, could operate at optimum BSFC (Brake Specific Fuel Consumption). You can still plug in to charge when convenient but are not limited by charging stations.

GM did a more complicated version of this with the Volt, which has an electric and a gas motor. Either or both can provide motive power through a speed-summed differential. The advantages are a smaller electric motor & smaller batteries, but the disadvantages are a heavier, more complex, less reliable powertrain. GM recently cancelled the Volt, to the dismay of many owners.
 

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Are manufacturers exploring an electric vehicle with reasonable battery-powered range plus a small, super efficient onboard diesel generator to provide extra charging when needed?
This is similar to how railroad locomotives work (except for the battery part), and I've often wondered why cars can't be set up the same way. Have the diesel power the motors, and the batteries are only to store 'surplus' electricity.
 

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Is anyone deferring a van purchase because they except electric vehicles to take over in a couple of years?

Seems to be reports now that the effect is beginning to take hold.

Of course, that is only for people who have a choice and do not need a vehicle now.
A electric Transit makes sense if you are a contractor who only works in the city. I am a contractor who has +/- (25) vans in the field primarily driving to assorted power plants (Solar, Wind, Gas-fired, hydro) that are often 100's of mile away. Fords electric Transit delay and dismal published estimated range is unacceptable. I have been looking hard into the electric Transit for +2 years now, and Ford still only publishes the est. range for a "low-roof" short wheel base model. They will give absolutely NO estimates on the most popular Transit LWB + Mid-roof and certainly would not dare guess at the High-roof Extended.
I am a strong Ford advocate as my grandfather worked @ Ford for 42 years in the Twin cities. It has been very difficult to champion Ford in the last 2-years due to their short comings and shortsightedness of foreign dependency of chips and other single-source parts. I ordered (6) vans last February to learn that the entire order was lost (CANCELLED) by Ford in spite of me having copies of the build sheets and order status with my Ford Fleet manager. This entire order was reordered in March of 2021 with the 1st arrival around 12/ 2021, and the 2cd around January 2022. I ordered a 4X4 Ranger Super-cab around 10/2021 with a anticipated delivery (after delays via email from Ford) of 1/2022. I was calling every two weeks to keep close tabs on this vehicle to only learn in January of this year that this order too had somehow "disappeared" from the order que. It was again immediately reordered.
Of course Ford corporate claims that my Dealership or Fleet contact must have made some mistakes. This may had been plausible if it wasn't for the fact that there are presently forums being shared by Ford fleet managers making the same claims of back-ordered trucks & Vans being deleted/ canceled/ lost.
 

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A PowerBoost Hybrid Transit would be perfect. 7.2 kW onboard generator with the engine. If there was some way to use the van battery for the house bank that'd be spectacular too. Would make life much easier electrical-wise. Improved efficiency mpg-wise would be nice too.

That being said, who knows how far out it is. I'm sure it's coming, rising fuel efficiency requirements will demand it.

Until batteries have about twice as much energy density as they do now (and twice as fast charging rates) - an all-electric van makes no sense. The e-transit is a joke unless you're a delivery driver doing 80 miles of driving a day (which many commercial transit owners are, so it makes plenty of sense for them)
 

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This is similar to how railroad locomotives work (except for the battery part), and I've often wondered why cars can't be set up the same way. Have the diesel power the motors, and the batteries are only to store 'surplus' electricity.


I was talking with a friend the other day (both retired aerospace engineers). Are manufacturers exploring an electric vehicle with reasonable battery-powered range plus a small, super efficient onboard diesel generator to provide extra charging when needed? This configuration eliminates range anxiety, allows "pure" EV operation for normal day-to-day operation, and provides a combined range that is only limited by the diesel fuel tank capacity. The turbo-diesel engine, ~1L, could operate at optimum BSFC (Brake Specific Fuel Consumption). You can still plug in to charge when convenient but are not limited by charging stations.

GM did a more complicated version of this with the Volt, which has an electric and a gas motor. Either or both can provide motive power through a speed-summed differential. The advantages are a smaller electric motor & smaller batteries, but the disadvantages are a heavier, more complex, less reliable powertrain. GM recently cancelled the Volt, to the dismay of many owners.
This concept has been around for a long time. There were discussions about it in the 70s and probably before that.

It is held back primarily by EPA, California AQMD, and DOT regulations of how they treat the fuel efficiency numbers, not the core technology.
 

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I was talking with a friend the other day (both retired aerospace engineers). Are manufacturers exploring an electric vehicle with reasonable battery-powered range plus a small, super efficient onboard diesel generator to provide extra charging when needed? This configuration eliminates range anxiety, allows "pure" EV operation for normal day-to-day operation, and provides a combined range that is only limited by the diesel fuel tank capacity. The turbo-diesel engine, ~1L, could operate at optimum BSFC (Brake Specific Fuel Consumption). You can still plug in to charge when convenient but are not limited by charging stations.

GM did a more complicated version of this with the Volt, which has an electric and a gas motor. Either or both can provide motive power through a speed-summed differential. The advantages are a smaller electric motor & smaller batteries, but the disadvantages are a heavier, more complex, less reliable powertrain. GM recently cancelled the Volt, to the dismay of many owners.
This makes a lot of sense to me. It is, after all, basically how railroad locomotives work (diesel generated electricity).
 

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I am in the camp of it being the reverse of the Osborne effect. People see what is coming for electrified vehicles and are buying ICE vehicles to last as long into the crazy times as possible - or until they can re-call some politicians for being even more silly than usual.
It's funny how political allegiances dictate personal observations. I wonder what the social media soundbites would be if the political Right pundits were promoting new business and expanding economy via EVs. I suspect the political Left would then be opposed to EVs of all kinds, and come up with rationalizations why they are "bad". 😁

I'm stuck in no-man's land in-between, thus a pariah to both Left and Right. Things should be taken at face value, which is why I keep harping on a mixed system of practical use rather than electrifying everything, or demonizing EVs. Baby and bathwater come to mind. Sooner or later, crude oil is going to be very expensive to find and process and deliver as gasoline as it becomes rarer. Yet we keep burning it up as fast as we can, like crack addicts. As the economic paths cross and it becomes more expensive to operate within the petrochemical fuel paradigm vs electricity fuel paradigm, we'll see a real shift. It won't be overnight, it will be a gradual replacement, so the systems will keep pace, and a lot of new businesses will spring up to make profit from the new structure. And gas/diesel/kerosene powered vehicles/ships/trains/aircraft will still be around, and maybe for much longer because less crude is being used by everyday drivers.

Unless that suitcase sized clean fusion powerplant becomes a reality, then petrochemical AND electrical structure systems will collapse!
 
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