Ford Transit USA Forum banner
21 - 39 of 39 Posts

Registered
Joined
5,065 Posts
the 'E' Transit has been accumulating on the lot
initial price being close to $9000 more than the gas version
Now back to our regularly planned programming on delivery vans. Some rough estimates on the EV economics:

Charging the 67KWH battery at say $0.14/KWH = $9/miles (assumes 100% charge efficiency)
vs 100 miles @ 12 mpg and $4.50/gal (current nat'l avg) = $38/100 miles
Say a buyer where that capacity fits their needs averages 50 miles/day (IIRC I did see that value somewhere) for 250 days per year the annual saving is $3650/yr. Knock off $500/yr for the cost of capital and you are looking at a 3 year payback. If/when the cost of gas goes back to $3.00 (electricity seems to remain relatively stable) then the payback period would double. Reduced PM costs should improve the payback a bit. Difference in DT costs are an unknown but should (hopefully) favor EV, as should out of warrantee issues.

IMO not a compelling argument for a small business to be an early adopter. Different story for the large fleet operators to try and be ahead of the curve. Maybe some of the big fleet buyers might be interested, assuming the price is similar to what they typically pay, especially since the alternatives seem like they might be verging on vaporware(?). They probably have higher utilization of the battery pack than assumed in my estimates. Or sell them in a state where fuel costs are perpetually higher than the national average (bonus greenwashing has high PR value in some of those states). I doubt Ford would ever put cash on the hood. That would get a lot of press look terrible. It's easier to keep a few units hidden here and there.

Of course now that there are reports of F150's being listed on a dealer's site for $150K ...
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
Charging the 67KWH battery at say $0.14/KWH = $9/miles (assumes 100% charge efficiency)
vs 100 miles @ 12 mpg and $4.50/gal (current nat'l avg) = $38/100 miles
Say a buyer where that capacity fits their needs averages 50 miles/day (IIRC I did see that value somewhere) for 250 days per year the annual saving is $3650/yr. Knock off $500/yr for the cost of capital and you are looking at a 3 year payback. If/when the cost of gas goes back to $3.00 (electricity seems to remain relatively stable) then the payback period would double. Reduced PM costs should improve the payback a bit. Difference in DT costs are an unknown but should (hopefully) favor EV, as should out of warrantee issues.

The cost of charging equipment is not included if I understood his $9,000 differential correctly. Also, the cost of electricity does not include highway taxes, so that鈥檚 a cost someone will end up paying for one way or another. Individually, it鈥檚 not an issue, but as a society we will have the added cost of grid upgrades which must be paid for as well.

If your 12 MPG (which seems a little low to me) is improved to 20~25 MPG by use of inexpensive hybrid, plus we add electric capital and tax costs, the payback period suddenly becomes much longer than many companies require. Granted, hybrid technology adds up-front cost also, but overall justification to go from hybrid to BEV gets tougher.

It seems to me the logical first step is to go from gas-only to gas-hybrid. Plug-in may also have a place for some, but expect that demand will be limited.
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
While arrivals of the 2022 Transits seem to come and go as customers come to get their vans, the 'E' Transit has been accumulating on the lot and we not have 3 available.
My son was at a Ford dealer in Houston area and saw a few E-Transit on lot, which reminded me of this thread and your comment above. Do you have an update on how E-Transit sales are progressing?

Was curious because he also mentioned dealer inventory appeared low, making the E-Transit on lot stand out.
 

Registered
Joined
8,990 Posts
I would guess that because of the in-town range, you'd mostly be selling these to local buyers, limiting your usual customer base.

How much is it to ship a van across the country now, anyway? When I was shopping 5+ years ago it was between $1000-1500.
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
I would guess that because of the in-town range, you'd mostly be selling these to local buyers, limiting your usual customer base.

How much is it to ship a van across the country now, anyway? When I was shopping 5+ years ago it was between $1000-1500.
Are you suggesting Ford should budget shipping most of them to California and New York, where buyers are lining up? 馃榾
 

Registered
Joined
8,990 Posts
Are you suggesting Ford should budget shipping most of them to California and New York, where buyers are lining up? 馃榾
:LOL:
well, they are delivering to the dealers that ordered them. The CA and NY dealers should have ordered more...or maybe they already got the max allowed per dealership.
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
:LOL:
well, they are delivering to the dealers that ordered them. The CA and NY dealers should have ordered more...or maybe they already got the max allowed per dealership.
I was kidding and don鈥檛 know that anyone is lining up for BEV Transit with +/- 100-mile range.

If there is demand, I would expect it strongest in environmental states like California and New York, and within large cities like LA or NYC. Having said that, I still have a hard time seeing large market for these vans much beyond making a green statement. Companies may pay a premium same as advertising. No company wants to appear detrimental to environment. Appearing to care must have value.
 

Registered
Joined
384 Posts
I was kidding and don鈥檛 know that anyone is lining up for BEV Transit with +/- 100-mile range.
I know my father's park district really wants one, it's absolutely perfect for their needs. Their entire district is ~20 square miles and they never have any need to go farther than that. And because all of their driving is purely in-town, stop-and-go, low speed stuff an electric vehicle is perfect for them. They absolutly destroy their gas vehicles in short order because their use case is just so hard on gasoline engines.

Unfortunately because they are state government, they have to go through a really convoluted purchasing process based upon what the state itself has ordered and it doesn't seem like they'll be able to get an electric van. They're probably being given a gas Promaster, which they don't want but they're not given a lot of authority in the matter.
 

Registered
Joined
89 Posts
I know my father's park district really wants one, it's absolutely perfect for their needs. Their entire district is ~20 square miles and they never have any need to go farther than that. And because all of their driving is purely in-town, stop-and-go, low speed stuff an electric vehicle is perfect for them. They absolutly destroy their gas vehicles in short order because their use case is just so hard on gasoline engines.
I spent a summer driving small delivery vehicles for a well-known national shipping organization, and the ~20-year-old trucks often had only 15,000 to 18,000 miles on them. Maintenance supervisor joked that they probably spent more money replacing starters than on fuel. That use case could even support a van with a much smaller battery...
 

Registered
Joined
8,990 Posts
I was kidding and don鈥檛 know that anyone is lining up for BEV Transit with +/- 100-mile range.

If there is demand, I would expect it strongest in environmental states like California and New York, and within large cities like LA or NYC. Having said that, I still have a hard time seeing large market for these vans much beyond making a green statement. Companies may pay a premium same as advertising. No company wants to appear detrimental to environment. Appearing to care must have value.
Fleets are clamoring for them. Cheaper to operate and maintain, a LOT less maintenance and breakdowns, tax credits, and in-town fleets hardly ever drive more than 50 miles in a day. I could see local trades companies wanting to buy them off the lot. All the full size eVans from various companies are in that 125 mile range, because that's what the fleets are demanding (UPS, FedEx, Amazon, etc). Why put extra battery capacity in there and charge more if they don't want it?
It all boils down to the bottom line. That "green appearance" thing is for ideologues, and they rarely stay in business very long.
 

Registered
Joined
50 Posts
Tell those geniuses at Ford to bring down the price. $40k for such paltry range is no good. Bought a Bolt with 260 miles range brand new for $24k. Previously had a new NV1500 for the same price.

Waiting on a used Lightning or Transit at a reasonable price.
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
Fleets are clamoring for them. Cheaper to operate and maintain, a LOT less maintenance and breakdowns, tax credits, and in-town fleets hardly ever drive more than 50 miles in a day. I could see local trades companies wanting to buy them off the lot. All the full size eVans from various companies are in that 125 mile range, because that's what the fleets are demanding (UPS, FedEx, Amazon, etc). Why put extra battery capacity in there and charge more if they don't want it?
It all boils down to the bottom line. That "green appearance" thing is for ideologues, and they rarely stay in business very long.
Environmentalist and other special interest groups try to coerce large companies by public shaming, which can be effective at getting corporations to invest in projects that they wouldn鈥檛 have otherwise. Protecting their image and brands is way more important than a little added cost, so by 鈥渢esting鈥 electric fleets corporations can defend themselves from accusations. They can at least claim they are doing their best. One corporation I鈥檓 familiar with started testing BEV trucks over 20 years ago and they still represent a very small percentage of their total fleet. If large commercial BEVs saved as much as a few claim, corporations would have switched already. Granted electric vehicle costs are dropping, but not fast enough yet. And shortages in raw materials is also slowing conversion process.

Electrification appears much more complicated than the two extremes want to admit. Objectively, we can鈥檛 ignore it, but at same time we are not going about it wisely either.

For what it鈥檚 worth, I don鈥檛 accept much of what is commonly repeated as factual data. Ford and others can spin information and make a lot of claims, but until I see independent and unbiased information based on actual use, it鈥檚 difficult to believe much.
 

Registered
Joined
1,020 Posts
Environmentalist and other special interest groups try to coerce large companies by public shaming, which can be effective at getting corporations to invest in projects that they wouldn鈥檛 have otherwise. Protecting their image and brands is way more important than a little added cost, so by 鈥渢esting鈥 electric fleets corporations can defend themselves from accusations.
So Amazon invested $1.3 billion+ in Rivian in 2019 with plans to eventually get 100K delivery vehicles so they would avoid the coercion / public shaming by environmentalists? Not because they were trying to increase their profits?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: surly Bill

Registered
Joined
8,990 Posts
We keep diverting into general vehicle applications. Electric vehicles, especially delivery vans, are specialty vehicles designed for specific applications. Just like a forklift isn't the ideal thing to take the kids to soccer practice, an electric drivetrain van isn't the ideal thing to use for a cross country trip or use in rural areas where "town" is a 50+ mile round trip. Anecdote: My sister in law for some reason was addicted to Starbucks (no idea why, and it was just plain coffee, not a fancy concoction). It was a 30+ mile round trip from their house to town, and she would go for a single cup of coffee at least twice a day, often 3, sometimes 4. With other driving around, that's an average of 100+ per day. Obviously the electric drivetrain Transit would not work for her.

The solution for people who would have serious constraints driving a BEV as their regular vehicle is to not buy a BEV. It's kind of simple if you think about it. :sneaky:
For the fleets that want them, they still want them, and almost exclusively for the bottom line.

I think at some point for the most smog-choked cities, there will be restrictions on gas/diesel vehicles, at least during certain hours. Some cities already prohibit large trucks from entering during work hours, and deliveries by semi are made overnight. The same restrictions will probably be made for gas/diesel commercial vehicles in some places, thus having a BEV delivery vehicle allows a company to keep operating 24hrs a day. Specialty Vehicles. Diesel restrictions will probably be the first to happen.
 

Registered
Joined
1,485 Posts
So Amazon invested $1.3 billion+ in Rivian in 2019 with plans to eventually get 100K delivery vehicles so they would avoid the coercion / public shaming by environmentalists? Not because they were trying to increase their profits?
In case of Amazon is there a difference? Serious question. I think not.

Initially Amazon got a lot of bad press from perception that they had 1,000s of diesel and gas vans driving around wasting gas to deliver a 1-pound package. In reality they wasted less gas than a person driving 5 or 10 miles to buy a small item. When an Amazon van delivers 50 packages in 50 miles, it鈥檚 not that fuel inefficient by comparison. Regardless of reality versus perception, Amazon is different than many corporations in that transportation is a major part of their business. For Amazon, UPS, FED-EX, etc., saving on transportation costs is a huge deal. By comparison, many corporations don鈥檛 handle transportation directly, preferring to focus on their main business, and contract out transportation. In a free market, would they care if low bidder drove gas, diesel, or electric? I doubt it. I have no idea how Samsung TVs are delivered to Best Buy, but know Amazon vans in my area are mostly gasoline.

Amazon can increase their profits by expanding their business, and having a good reputation is a large part of that success in my opinion. Electric vans may or may not save cost directly, but send the right message either way. At least for now. That too can change unexpectedly.
 

Registered
Joined
849 Posts
I'm surprised at any e-Transits are on the lots, I would have thought a delivery company would have scooped up any available units.
 
21 - 39 of 39 Posts
Top